Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy
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Abstract
An autoregressive model was selected to describe geoelectrical time series. An objective technique was subsequently applied to analyze and discriminate values above (below) an a priorifixed threshold possibly related to seismic events. A complete check of the model and the main guidelines to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme events are reported. A first application of the proposed technique is discussed through the analysis of the experimental data recorded by an automatic station located in Tito, a small town on the Apennine chain in Southern Italy. This region was hit by the November 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake and it is one of most active areas of the Mediterranean region. After a preliminary filtering procedure to reduce the influence of external parameters (i.e. the meteo-climatic effects), it was demonstrated that the geoelectrical residual time series are well described by means of a second order autoregressive model. Our findings outline a statistical methodology to evaluate the efficiency of electrical seismic precursors.
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How to Cite
Di Bello, G., Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., Satriano, C., Serio, C. and Tramutoli, V. (1996) “Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy”, Annals of Geophysics, 39(1). doi: 10.4401/ag-3947.
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