Earthquake forecasting: statistics and information

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Published: Jan 27, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6816
Keywords:
Earthquake forecasting, Lattice, Random process, Information

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Vladimir Gertsik
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics RAS, Moscow,
Mark Kelbert
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics RAS, Moscow, Russia; Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia; Swansea University, Department of Mathematics, Swansea,
Anatoly Krichevets
Lomonosov MSU, Department of Psychology, Moscow,

Abstract

The paper presents a decision rule forming a mathematical basis of earthquake forecasting problem. We develop an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multicomponent random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting a multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different algorithms of earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. ‘Forecasting’ (the calculation of the probabilities) and ‘prediction’ (the alarm declaring) of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.

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How to Cite
Gertsik, V., Kelbert, M. and Krichevets, A. (2016) “Earthquake forecasting: statistics and information”, Annals of Geophysics, 58(6), p. S0658. doi: 10.4401/ag-6816.
Issue
Vol. 58 No. 6 (2015)
Section
Seismology

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