A dynamic system to forecast ionospheric storm disturbances based on solar wind conditions

I. Tsagouri, A. Belehaki, L. R. Cander


For the reliable performance of technologically advanced radio communications systems under geomagnetically
disturbed conditions, the forecast and modelling of the ionospheric response during storms is a high priority. The
ionospheric storm forecasting models that are currently in operation have shown a high degree of reliability during
quiet conditions, but they have proved inadequate during storm events. To improve their prediction accuracy, we
have to take advantage of the deeper understanding in ionospheric storm dynamics that is currently available, indicating
a correlation between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) disturbances and the qualitative signature
of ionospheric storm disturbances at middle latitude stations. In this paper we analyse observations of the foF2 critical
frequency parameter from one mid-latitude European ionospheric station (Chilton) in conjunction with observations
of IMF parameters (total magnitude, Bt and Bz-IMF component) from the ACE spacecraft mission for eight
storm events. The determination of the time delay in the ionospheric response to the interplanetary medium disturbances
leads to significant results concerning the forecast of the ionospheric storms onset and their development
during the first 24 h. In this way the real-time ACE observations of the solar wind parameters may be used in the
development of a real-time dynamic ionospheric storm model with adequate accuracy.


inospheric forecasting;ionospheric modelling;ionospheric storms

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3210
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X