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of null decay at that distance. According to the Bayesian approach this p parameter is, in turn, a Beta random variable. The observations related to earthquakes with their epicenter outside the area concerned, but belonging to homogeneous zones, are used as prior knowledge of the phenomenon, while the data points of events inside
the area are used to update the estimates through the posterior means of the quantities involved. Our methodology
is described in detail in an application to the Umbria-Marche area in Central Italy. The data sets examined are the macroseismic intensity database DOM4.1 and the zonation ZS.4, both compiled by the Italian Group for
Defence against Earthquakes (GNDT). The method is validated by comparing the observed and the estimated intensity data points of the Camerino (28/07/1799) and of the Colfiorito (26/09/1997) earthquakes.
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