Seismic hazard assessment for the Sofia area

D. Solakov, S. Simeonova, L. Christoskov


The capital of Bulgaria, Sofia, is situated in the center of the so-called Sofia area. This is the most populated industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. We apply a version of machine code EQRISK for hazard assessment of the Sofia area according to the Cornell-McGuire approach. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on a simplified seismogenic model, which is derived from seismic zoning of Bulgaria. We show, using a Monte Carlo approach, that uncertainties in seismic input have a relatively small effect on the PSHA output, especially when compared with uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationship. Our PSHA map shows that a 103 annual probability of the PGA exceeds 0.3 g in much of the Sofia area


Seismic hazard assestement;central-balkan neotectonic region;seismicity;attenuation relationships;treatment of uncertainty

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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X