A proposal of regionalization for the application of the CN earthquake prediction algorithm to the Italian territory

A. Peresan, G. Costa, G. F. Panza


A regionalization of the Italian territory, strictly based on seismotectonic zoning and the main geodynamic features of the Italian area, is proposed for intermediate-term earthquake prediction with CN algorithm. Three regions, composed of adjacent zones with the same seismogenic behaviour or with transitional properties, are selected for the north, centre and south of Italy, compatibly with the kinematic model. This regionalization allows us an average reduction of the spatial uncertainty of about 35% for the northern and central regions, and of about 70% for the southern region in comparison with previous studies. A general reduction of the percentage of total TIPs, with respect to the results obtained neglecting the seismotectonic zoning, has been observed as well. Therefore, it seems that the seismotectonic model is a useful tool selection of the fault systems involved in the preparation of strong earthquakes. The successful attempt of catalogue upgrading, accomplished using the NEIC Preliminary Determinations of Epicentres, appears to substantiate the robustness of the algorithm against changes in the catalogue.


Earthquake prediction;CN algorithm;Italy;seismotectonic model

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3767
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X