Forecast of solar maximum and minimum dates for solar cycles 23 to 29

A. G. Elias, N. Ortiz de Adler

Abstract


The solar cycle length for cycles 23 to 29 are forecasted. Two methods are analysed. In the first one, the solar cycle length is separated into its two phases í the rise time and the fall off time í and a multiple regression method is applied to each phase using lagged values as independent variables. In the second method, the multiple regression is fitted directly to the solar cycle length. The minimum and maximum solar activity dates are listed for the cycles predicted with the latter method which proves to be more accurate. Two lagged values appear in the multiple regression adjusted to the solar cycle length. One is associated with the Gleissberg period, also observed in the maximum sunspot number, and the other is coincident with one of the periodicities in the C14 time record, which is associated with solar activity variation

Keywords


solar cycle;solar activity periodicities;sunspot forecast

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References


DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3790
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X