On the modeling of strong motion parameters and correlation with historical macroseismic data: an application to the 1915 Avezzano earthquake

R. Berardi, A. Mendez, M. Mucciarelli, F. Pacor, G. Longhi, C. Petrungaro


This article describes the results of a ground motion modeling study of the 1915 Avezzano earthquake. The
goal was to test assuinptions regarding the rupture process of this earthquake by attempting to model the damage
to historical monuments and populated habitats during the earthquake. The methodology used combines
stochastic and deterministic modeling techniques to synthesize strong ground motion, starting from a simple
characterization of the earthquake source on an extended fault plane. The stochastic component of the methodology
is used to simulate high-frequency ground motion oscillations. The envelopes of these synthetic waveforms,
however, are simulated in a deterministic way based on the isochron formulation for the calculation of
radiated seismic energy. Synthetic acceleration time histories representative of ground motion experienced at
the towns of Avezzano, Celano, Ortucchio, and Sora are then analyzed in terms of the damage to historical
buildings at these sites. The article also discusses how the same methodology can be adapted to efficiently
evaluate various strong motion parameters such as duration and amplitude of ground shaking, at several hundreds
of surface sites and as a function of rupture process. The usefulness of such a technique is illustrated
through the inodeling of intensity data from the Avezzano earthquake. One of the most interesting results is
that it is possible to distinguish between different rupture scenarios for the 1915 earthquake based on the goodness
of fit of theoretical intensities to observed values.


Fucino area (Central Italy);isochron;envelope;extended fault;macroseismic intensity;strong ground motion

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4069
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X