Application of BET_EF at Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005)

Alfonso Brancato, Stefano Gresta, Salvatore Alparone, Daniele Andronico, Alessandro Bonforte, Tommaso Caltabiano, Ornella Cocina, Rosa Anna Corsaro, Renato Cristofolini, Giuseppe Di Grazia, Giovanni Distefano, Carmelo Ferlito, Salvatore Gambino, Salvatore Giammanco, Filippo Greco, Rosalba Napoli, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Giuseppina Tusa, Marco Viccaro


Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical ‘precursor’ parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated.


04.08.02 Experimental volcanism, 04.08.06 Volcano monitoring, 04.08.08 Volcanic risk, 05.01.04 Statistical analysis, 05.02.05 Collections.

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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X