Reply to "Comment on 'Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation by Jordan et al. [2011]' by Stuart Crampin"

Thomas H. Jordan, Yun-Tai Chen, Paolo Gasparini, Raul Madariaga, Ian Main, Warner Marzocchi, Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Gennady Sobolev, Koshun Yamaoka, Jochen Zschau

Abstract


In his commentary on the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) report [Jordan et al. 2011], Crampin [2012] claims that observable changes in shear-wave splitting can predict large earthquakes on short time scales with high reliability and skill, and he challenges a central ICEF finding—that no method has yet demonstrated such a predictive capability. In particular, Crampin asserts that "observations of seismic shear-wave splitting monitored at a three-borehole Stress-Monitoring Site (SMS) in central Italy could monitor stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation (crack-coalescence) before all damaging (M ≥ 5) earthquakes within 1000 km of the SMS […] This means that installation of one expensive SMS (preferably two throughout the length of Italy) would stress-forecast the time, magnitude, and in some circumstances fault-break of all potentially damaging on the mainland of Italy".
Crampin's assertions are based on prediction methods he has advocated for several decades [e.g., Crampin et al. 1984; Crampin et al. 1990]. As part of the ICEF study, we reviewed the literature on these methods. Nothing contained in the present commentary compels us to alter our previous findings. [...]

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References


DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5690
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X