Reply to "Comment on 'Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation by Jordan et al. [2011]' by Stuart Crampin"
Main Article Content
Abstract
In his commentary on the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) report [Jordan et al. 2011], Crampin [2012] claims that observable changes in shear-wave splitting can predict large earthquakes on short time scales with high reliability and skill, and he challenges a central ICEF finding—that no method has yet demonstrated such a predictive capability. In particular, Crampin asserts that "observations of seismic shear-wave splitting monitored at a three-borehole Stress-Monitoring Site (SMS) in central Italy could monitor stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation (crack-coalescence) before all damaging (M ≥ 5) earthquakes within 1000 km of the SMS […] This means that installation of one expensive SMS (preferably two throughout the length of Italy) would stress-forecast the time, magnitude, and in some circumstances fault-break of all potentially damaging on the mainland of Italy".
Crampin's assertions are based on prediction methods he has advocated for several decades [e.g., Crampin et al. 1984; Crampin et al. 1990]. As part of the ICEF study, we reviewed the literature on these methods. Nothing contained in the present commentary compels us to alter our previous findings. [...]
Crampin's assertions are based on prediction methods he has advocated for several decades [e.g., Crampin et al. 1984; Crampin et al. 1990]. As part of the ICEF study, we reviewed the literature on these methods. Nothing contained in the present commentary compels us to alter our previous findings. [...]
Article Details
How to Cite
1.
Jordan TH, Chen Y-T, Gasparini P, Madariaga R, Main I, Marzocchi W, Papadopoulos G, Sobolev G, Yamaoka K, Zschau J. Reply to "Comment on ’Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation by Jordan et al. [2011]’ by Stuart Crampin". Ann. Geophys. [Internet]. 2012Apr.26 [cited 2023Dec.3];55(1). Available from: https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5690
Issue
Section
Invited papers - Review Articles
Open-Access License
No Permission Required
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia applies the Creative Commons Attribution License (CCAL) to all works we publish.
Under the CCAL, authors retain ownership of the copyright for their article, but authors allow anyone to download, reuse, reprint, modify, distribute, so long as the original authors and source are cited. No permission is required from the authors or the publishers.
In most cases, appropriate attribution can be provided by simply citing the original article.
If the item you plan to reuse is not part of a published article (e.g., a featured issue image), then please indicate the originator of the work, and the volume, issue, and date of the journal in which the item appeared. For any reuse or redistribution of a work, you must also make clear the license terms under which the work was published.
This broad license was developed to facilitate open access to, and free use of, original works of all types. Applying this standard license to your own work will ensure your right to make your work freely and openly available. For queries about the license, please contact ann.geophys@ingv.it.