Comment on "Assessing CN earthquake predictions in Italy" by M. Taroni, W. Marzocchi, P. Roselli

George Molchan, Antonella Peresan, Giuliano Francesco Panza, Leontina Romashkova, Vladimir Kossobokov


The paper by Taroni et al. (2016) considers results of forward prediction of Italian strong earthquakes by CN algorithm with the declared intent of providing “a careful assessment of CN prediction performances … using standard testing procedures.” Given the very limited number of target events within each region, however, the considered situation is non statistical, and a priori it is clear that the standard statistical methods are not effective here.

The attempt to replace the standard approaches by Pari-mutuel Gambling Score (PGS) method leads to almost complete loss of information about predicted earthquakes, even for a large sample of target events. Therefore, the conclusions based on PGS, are untenable. 


Earthquake prediction; prospective testing; statistical analysis

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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X