Forecasting the 2018 February 12th CME propagation with the P-DBM model: a fast warning procedure

Main Article Content

Dario Del Moro
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2500-5054
Gianluca Napoletano
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8618-3044
Roberta Forte
Luca Giovannelli
Ermanno Pietropaolo
Francesco Berrilli

Abstract

The forecast of the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high−technology society and for the Earth’s upper atmosphere status and LEO satellites. We realized a procedure based on the Drag−Based Model which uses probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, and allows the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We tested this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, obtaining extremely promising results.

We realized a real−time implementation of this algorithm which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to provide early warning for those CME approaching Earth. We present the results of this real−time fast warning procedure for the case of the 2018 February 12th CME.

Article Details

How to Cite
1.
Del Moro D, Napoletano G, Forte R, Giovannelli L, Pietropaolo E, Berrilli F. Forecasting the 2018 February 12th CME propagation with the P-DBM model: a fast warning procedure. Ann. Geophys. [Internet]. 2019Dec.12 [cited 2021Oct.25];62(4):GM456. Available from: https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/7750
Section
From the Sun to the Earth’s interior
Author Biographies

Dario Del Moro, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"

Physics Department

Assistant Professor

Gianluca Napoletano, University of L'Aquila

Department of Chemistry and Physics

PhD student

Roberta Forte, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"

Physics Department

Resarch Grant

Luca Giovannelli, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"

Physics Department

Researcher

Ermanno Pietropaolo, University of L'Aquila

Department of Chemistry and Physics

Assistant Professor

Francesco Berrilli, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"

Physics Department

Associate Professor

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