An improved methodology for lava flow hazard mapping at Etna volcano

Abstract

Lava flow hazard is a significant geological threat associated with volcanic activity. Understanding and quantifying this hazard is crucial for protecting communities, infrastructure, and the environment, especially in active volcanic areas like Etna. Here we propose a new probabilistic methodology for assessing the lava flow hazard at Etna volcano based on a 4,000 years-long dataset of eruptions and accurate statistical analyses. The methodology combines the probability of future vent opening, the probabilities of occurrence of individual classes of eruptions, and the weighted combination of lava flow simulations. These simulations are based on representative scenarios for each eruption class. The results are two maps, one for flank and one for summit eruptions, which provide the likelihood that a specific area will be affected by lava flow inundation during specific time intervals. Moreover, we present the first attempt to assess the hazard from both kinds of eruptions (flank and summit) that occur at Etna volcano. These hazard maps represent a fundamental support for local authorities, facilitating land-use planning, emergency management, and decision-making during eruptive crises at Etna volcano.