The role of the high resolution weather forecast in estimating the run-offusing a simple hydrological model
Main Article Content
Abstract
Recent and repeated episodes of severe weather in Italy have stressed the need to have a suffi ciently accurate forecast
to give adequate warning to the involved areas. The impact of the precipitation, however, is also a function of the
characteristics of the hydrological basin. From this point of view, a rather startling example is the disaster which
hit the Campania region on 5th May, 1998 in which a moderate precipitation (about 100 mm in 24 h) produced
a huge landslide which killed or injured several tens of people and produced serious damage to the area. Such
localized events require among other things the use of a high resolution weather forecast. In this paper, a forecast
of the Campania event using a limited area model at 3 km grid resolution is presented. The forecast rainfall at
several grid resolution is used to initialize a simple hydrological model to estimate the run-off. The numerical
experiments suggest that high resolution may be a key factor in predicting the run-off.
to give adequate warning to the involved areas. The impact of the precipitation, however, is also a function of the
characteristics of the hydrological basin. From this point of view, a rather startling example is the disaster which
hit the Campania region on 5th May, 1998 in which a moderate precipitation (about 100 mm in 24 h) produced
a huge landslide which killed or injured several tens of people and produced serious damage to the area. Such
localized events require among other things the use of a high resolution weather forecast. In this paper, a forecast
of the Campania event using a limited area model at 3 km grid resolution is presented. The forecast rainfall at
several grid resolution is used to initialize a simple hydrological model to estimate the run-off. The numerical
experiments suggest that high resolution may be a key factor in predicting the run-off.
Article Details
How to Cite
Ferretti, R., Paolucci, T., Bernardini, L. and Visconti, G. (2003) “The role of the high resolution weather forecast in estimating the run-offusing a simple hydrological model”, Annals of Geophysics, 46(2). doi: 10.4401/ag-3405.
Issue
Section
OLD
Open-Access License
No Permission Required
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia applies the Creative Commons Attribution License (CCAL) to all works we publish.
Under the CCAL, authors retain ownership of the copyright for their article, but authors allow anyone to download, reuse, reprint, modify, distribute, so long as the original authors and source are cited. No permission is required from the authors or the publishers.
In most cases, appropriate attribution can be provided by simply citing the original article.
If the item you plan to reuse is not part of a published article (e.g., a featured issue image), then please indicate the originator of the work, and the volume, issue, and date of the journal in which the item appeared. For any reuse or redistribution of a work, you must also make clear the license terms under which the work was published.
This broad license was developed to facilitate open access to, and free use of, original works of all types. Applying this standard license to your own work will ensure your right to make your work freely and openly available. For queries about the license, please contact ann.geophys@ingv.it.