Preliminary earthquake focal mechanism forecasts for the Amatrice sequence (central Italy)

Abstract

We place the Amatrice (central Italy) seismic sequence and the related epicentral area in a contest of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). We apply a procedure to compute the probability to observe in the future a normal, reverse or strike-slip event and the average distribution of the P, T and N axes. This is a fundamental step to reduce the uncertainty connected to the Ground Motion Prediction Equation models, part of PSHA. For this purpose we use a significant focal mechanism catalogue and the latest present-day stress field data release for Italy to produce forecasted information that we compare with the equivalent data observed during the sequence.