The estimation of seismic risk for central Italy

M. CAPUTO, V. I. KEILIS-BOROK, T. I. KRONROD, G. M. MOLCHAN, G. F. PANZA, A. PIVA, V. M. PODGAETSKAJA, D. POSTPISCHI

Abstract


The estimation of seismic risk is made for three types
of objects in the central Italy, considering three kinds of models:
1) - A(2I,g): the intensity of the Poisson's flow of earthquakes, M
being the magnitude, g the liypocentre.
2) - I(g,g,M): giving the distribution on the surface for a single
earthquake (g,M), g being the epicentre.
3) - x(g,I): giving the effect x of the shakings of intensity / , g being
the position of the object.
For actual decision-making additional computations may be necessary
in order to estimate how our results are influenced by the errors in
these models. However practical decision can be made on the basis of these
data, because the experience shows that normally results are exagerated.

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References


DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4928
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X