Earthquake forecast by imbalance machine learning using geophysical predictors

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Published: Dec 31, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8946

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Tengiz Kiria
M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
Tamaz Chelidze
M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
George Melikadze
M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
Tamar Jimsheladze
M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
Gennady Kobzev
M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

Abstract


In the present paper we consider the earthquake forecast as a binary problem of machine learning on the imbalanced data base applied to five regions of Georgia. For the training we used geophysical data base collected in 2017-2021, namely, variations of statistical characteristics of geomagnetic field components, seismic activity, water level in deep boreholes and tides. In this version a new predictor – the weighted seismic activity for previous 5 days - – is added compared to the predictors’ list used in previous papers. Besides, the length of the used database is increased 3 times compared to the earlier results. As in the database the earthquakes of M > 3.5 are rare, the number of negative cases is large (there are many days without EQs of M > 3.5), meaning that there is a strong imbalance between positive and negative cases of the order of 1:20; we apply the specific methodology Matthews’ correlation coefficient (MCC) and F1 score to avoid the strong imbalance effect.

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How to Cite
Kiria, T., Chelidze, T. ., Melikadze, G. ., Jimsheladze, T. and Kobzev, G. (2023) “Earthquake forecast by imbalance machine learning using geophysical predictors ”, Annals of Geophysics, 66(6), p. SE636. doi: 10.4401/ag-8946.
Issue
Vol. 66 No. 6 (2023)
Section
Special Issue: Developments in Earthquake Precursors Studies
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