Earthquake forecasting: statistics and information

Main Article Content

Vladimir Gertsik
Mark Kelbert
Anatoly Krichevets

Abstract

The paper presents a decision rule forming a mathematical basis of earthquake forecasting problem. We develop an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multicomponent random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting a multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different algorithms of earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. ‘Forecasting’ (the calculation of the probabilities) and ‘prediction’ (the alarm declaring) of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.

Article Details

How to Cite
1.
Gertsik V, Kelbert M, Krichevets A. Earthquake forecasting: statistics and information. Ann. Geophys. [Internet]. 2016Jan.27 [cited 2022Jun.29];58(6):S0658. Available from: https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6816
Section
Seismology