Seismogeochemical algorithms for earthquake prediction: an overview

G. Etiope, M. Calcara, F. Quattrocchi


While the literature abounds with case histories related to geochemical precursory phenomena, only a few studies on definite seismogeochemical algorithms have been published so far. Currently, available theoretical algorithms are based on obsolete views of fluid migration processes that do not take into account the possibility of rapid and long-distance gas migration from the focal zone. Empirical algorithms are often based on a limited number of data and need validation for several geostructural environments. The algorithms of Sardarov (1981) and Rikitake (1987), for Rn and other geochemical elements, suggest that a definite relationship exists between geochemical parameters and seismic events. Their validation must be based on the verification of independence (maintained by the former author) or dependence (maintained by the latter) of the precursor time on the seismic data.


Earthquake prediction;fluid geochemistry;fluid migration

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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X