Recognizing the Italian zones most prone to next large earthquakes: possible approaches and present chances

E. Mantovani, D. Albarello, C. Tamburelli, D. Babbucci


The defense from earthquakes in Italy would be considerably favoured by knowing where the next strong shocks will most probably occur. However, to obtain this information a well-defined and widely accepted method is not yet available. This work discusses the approaches so far proposed and tries to estimate the relative chances of providing reliable indications on this problem. Particular attention focusses on the methodology based on the concept of «strain migration».


Seismic hazard;time dependence;Italian zone

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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X