Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of the earthquake occurrence modeling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales.

W. Marzocchi


The main goal of this work is to review the scientific researches carried out before and after the Umbria-Marche sequence related to the earthquake forecasting/prediction in Italy. In particular, I focus the attention on models that aim addressing three main practical questions: was (is) Umbria-Marche a region with high probability of occurrence of a destructive earthquake? Was a precursory activity recorded before the mainshock(s)? What was our capability to model the spatio-temporal-magnitude evolution of that seismic sequence? The models are reviewed pointing out what we have learned after the Umbria-Marche earthquakes, in terms of physical understanding of earthquake occurrence process, and of improving our capability to forecast earthquakes and to track in real-time seismic sequences.


earthquake forecasting

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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X