A seismic probability map



The material included in former two papers (SB and EF)
which summs 3307 shocks corresponding to 2360 years, up to I960, was
reduced to a 50 years period by means the weight obtained for each epoch.
The weitliing factor is the ratio 50 and the amount of years for every epoch.
The frequency has been referred over basis VII of the international
seismic scale of intensity, for all cases in which the earthquakes are equal or
greater than VI and up to IX. The sum of products: frequency and parameters
previously exposed, is the probable frequency expected for the 50
years period.
On each active small square, we have made the corresponding computation
and so we have drawn the Map No 1, in percentage. The epicenters with
intensity since X to XI are plotted in the Map No 2, in order to present a
complementary information.
A table shows the return periods obtained for all data (VII to XI),
and after checking them with other computed from the first up to last shock,
a list includes the probable approximate return periods estimated for the area.
The solution, we suggest, is an appropriated form to express the seismic
contingent phenomenon and it improves the conventional maps showing
the equal intensity curves corresponding to the maximal values of given side.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5223
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X