Main Article Content
This study presents an application of the ETAS model to the first 20 days of the 2016 central Italy sequence. Despite of the provisional nature of data, the model is able to describe the occurrence rate, but for the first hours after the mainshock occurrence. A sensitivity analysis of the model to two uncertainty sources, the model parameters and the occurrence history, shows that the second has a main role in controlling the performance of the ETAS model, more than the uncertainty on parameters. Previous results, together with the clear inability of ETAS to forecast the occurrence of a sequence before its starting time, give important suggestions about possible improvements. Here, a very preliminary attempt in this sense is presented.
No Permission Required
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia applies the Creative Commons Attribution License (CCAL) to all works we publish.
Under the CCAL, authors retain ownership of the copyright for their article, but authors allow anyone to download, reuse, reprint, modify, distribute, so long as the original authors and source are cited. No permission is required from the authors or the publishers.