Vol 53, No 3 (2010)

An earthquake forecast experiment in Italy

Edited by Warner Marzocchi, Danijel Schorlemmer, Stefan Wiemer

Table of Contents

Preface
Warner Marzocchi, Danijel Schorlemmer, Stefan Wiemer
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III-VIII
Setting up an earthquake forecast experiment in Italy
Danijel Schorlemmer, Annemarie Christophersen, Andrea Rovida, Francesco Mele, Massimiliano Stucchi, Warner Marzocchi
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1-9
Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts
Maximilian J. Werner, J. Douglas Zechar, Warner Marzocchi, Stefan Wiemer, CSEP-Italy Working Group
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11-30
A double-branching model applied to long-term forecasting of Italian seismicity (ML≥5.0) within the CSEP project
Anna Maria Lombardi, Warner Marzocchi
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31-39
Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST
Giuseppe Falcone, Rodolfo Console, Maura Murru
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41-50
HAZGRIDX: earthquake forecasting model for ML≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Italy based on spatially smoothed seismicity
Aybige Akinci
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51-61
Asperity-based earthquake likelihood models for Italy
Laura Gulia, Stefan Wiemer, Danijel Schorlemmer
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63-75
The Proportional Hazard Model as applied to the CSEP forcasting area in Italy
Licia Faenza, Warner Marzocchi
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77-84
LASSCI2009.2: layered earthquake rupture forecast model for central Italy, submitted to the CSEP project
Bruno Pace, Laura Peruzza, Francesco Visini
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85-97
Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
J. Douglas Zechar, Thomas H. Jordan
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99-105
Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
Maximilian J. Werner, Agnes Helmstetter, David D. Jackson, Yan Y. Kagan, Stefan Wiemer
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107-116
Earthquake forecast models for Italy based on the RI algorithm
Kazuyoshi Z. Nanjo
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117-127
Forecasting Italian seismicity through a spatio-temporal physical model: importance of considering time-dependency and reliability of the forecast
Chung-Han Chan, Mathilde B. Sørensen, Dietrich Stromeyer, Gottfried Grünthal, Oliver Heidbach, Amir Hakimhashemi, Flaminia Catalli
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129-140
Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures
Jochen Woessner, Annemarie Christophersen, J. Douglas Zechar, Damiano Monelli
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141-154
The ETAS model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEP experiment
Anna Maria Lombardi, Warner Marzocchi
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155-164
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