Foreword: Advances in Multi-Parametric, Time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Earthquakes Forecast

Valerio Tramutoli, Filippos Vallianatos

Abstract


Until now proposed Operational Earthquakes Forecast (OEF) methods suffer of strong limitations in terms of their actual (too low absolute value of estimated probabilities) and general (forecast is substantially limited to earthquakes which are preceded by foreshocks) operational applicability [e.g. Wang and Rogers, 2014; Panza et al., 2014]. They become of some (unfortunately still marginal) usefulness just when such a low-probabilities are multiplied for very high exposure and/or vulnerability factors in order to obtain significant amounts of the estimated seismic risk.

Mostly, due to these limitations they have been scarcely used in the past while the interest of the scientific community for the study of additional, not just seismological, geophysical/geochemical parameters that could provide useful indications about the evolution of seismic hazard in the medium/short term, is every day increasing.


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8594
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Published by INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - ISSN: 2037-416X