Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy

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Francesco Visini
Bruno Pace
Carlo Meletti
Warner Marzocchi
Aybige Akinci
Raffaele Azzaro
Simone Barani
Graziella Barberi
Giovanni Barreca
Roberto Basili
Peter Bird
Marco Bonini
Pierfrancesco Burrato
Martina Busetti
Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa
Ornella Cocina
Rodolfo Console
Giacomo Corti
Nicola D’Agostino
Salvatore D’Amico
Vera D’Amico
Michela Dal Cin
Giuseppe Falcone
Umberto Fracassi
Robin Gee
Vanja Kastelic
Carlo G Lai
Horst Langer
Francesco E Maesano
Andrea Marchesini
Luca Martelli
Carmelo Monaco
Maura Murru
Laura Peruzza
Maria Eliana Poli
Silvia Pondrelli
Alessandro Rebez
Renata Rotondi
Andrea Rovida
Federico Sani
Marco Santulin
Davide Scafidi
Jacopo Selva
Dario Slejko
Daniele Spallarossa
Alberto Tamaro
Gabriele Tarabusi
Matteo Taroni
Mara Monica Tiberti
Giuseppina Tusa
Tiziana Tuvè
Gianluca Valensise
Paola Vannoli
Elisa Varini
Adriano Zanferrari
Elisa Zuccolo


In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.

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Visini F, Pace B, Meletti C, Marzocchi W, Akinci A, Azzaro R, Barani S, Barberi G, Barreca G, Basili R, Bird P, Bonini M, Burrato P, Busetti M, Carafa MMC, Cocina O, Console R, Corti G, D’Agostino N, D’Amico S, D’Amico V, Dal Cin M, Falcone G, Fracassi U, Gee R, Kastelic V, Lai CG, Langer H, Maesano FE, Marchesini A, Martelli L, Monaco C, Murru M, Peruzza L, Poli ME, Pondrelli S, Rebez A, Rotondi R, Rovida A, Sani F, Santulin M, Scafidi D, Selva J, Slejko D, Spallarossa D, Tamaro A, Tarabusi G, Taroni M, Tiberti MM, Tusa G, Tuvè T, Valensise G, Vannoli P, Varini E, Zanferrari A, Zuccolo E. Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy. Ann. Geophys. [Internet]. 2021May26 [cited 2022Oct.2];64(2):SE220. Available from:

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